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2009 Amateur Draft Mock #7 Rounds 1-3

All three rounds for your viewing pleasure.  Comments have been omitted, so if you want some reasoning behind my choice, just comment, and I’ll answer.

1. Washington – Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State
2. Seattle – Dustin Ackley, OF/1B, North Carolina
3. San Diego – Donavan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA)
4. Pittsburgh – Aaron Crow, RHP, Ft. Worth Cats
5. Baltimore – Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri
6. San Francisco – Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA)
7. Atlanta – Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA)
8. Cincinnati – Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints
9. Detroit – Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy (MO)
10. Washington – Mike Trout, OF, Millville HS (NJ)
11. Colorado – Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State
12. Kansas City – Grant Green, SS, USC
13. Oakland – Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State
14. Texas – Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX)
15. Cleveland – Alex White, RHP, North Carolina
16. Arizona – Rex Brothers, LHP, Lipscomb
17. Arizona – Bobby Borchering, 3B, Bishop Verot HS (FL)
18. Florida – Chad James, LHP, Yukon HS (OK)
19. St. Louis – Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt
20. Toronto – Chad Jenkins, RHP, Kennesaw State
21. Houston – Matt Hobgood, RHP, Norco HS (CA)
22. Minnesota – Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS (CA)
23. Chicago (AL) – Everett Williams, OF, McCallum HS (TX)
24. Los Angeles (AL) – Max Stassi, C, Yuba City HS (CA)
25. Los Angeles (AL) – Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Santa Monica HS (CA)
26. Milwaukee – Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford
27. Seattle – AJ Pollock, OF, Notre Dame
28. Boston – Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX)
29. New York (AL) – Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College
30. Tampa Bay – Wil Myers, C, Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC)
31. Chicago  (NL) – Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana
32. Colorado – Garrett Gould, RHP, Maize HS (KS)

Supplemental First Round

33. Seattle – Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennesaw State
34. Colorado – Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia
35. Arizona – Billy Bullock, RHP, Florida
36. Los Angeles (NL) – Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State
37. Toronto – Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU
38. Chicago (AL) – Brett Jackson, OF, California
39. Milwaukee – Matt Davidson, 3B, Yucaipa HS (CA)
40. Los Angeles (AL) – Sam Dyson, RHP, South Carolina
41. Arizona – Brody Colvin, RHP, St. Thomas More HS (LA)
42. Los Angeles (AL) – Mychal Givens, SS/RHP, Plant HS (FL)
43. Cincinnati – James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky
44. Texas – Reymond Fuentes, OF, Callego HS (PR)
45. Arizona -Marc Krauss, OF, Ohio
46. Minnesota – Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Zachary HS (LA)
47. Milwaukee – Alex Wilson, RHP, Texas A&M
48. Los Angeles (AL) – Kent Matthes, OF, Alabama
49. Pittsburgh – Madison Younginer, RHP, Mauldin HS (SC)

Second Round

50. Washington – Victor Black, RHP, Dallas Baptist
51. Seattle – Keyvius Sampson, RHP, Forest HS (FL)
52. San Diego – Brad Boxberger, RHP, USC
53. Pittsburgh – Jeff Malm, 1B, Bishop Gorman HS (NV)
54. Baltimore – David Renfroe, SS, South Panola HS (MS)
55. San Francisco – Joe Kelly, RHP, UC Riverside
56. Los Angeles (NL) – Nick Franklin, SS, Lake Brantley HS (FL)
57. Cincinnati – Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State
58. Detroit – Ben Tootle, RHP, Jacksonville State
59. Colorado – Aaron Miller, LHP, Baylor
60. Arizona – Angelo Songco, OF, Loyola Marymount
61. Chicago (AL) – Matt Bashore, LHP, Indiana
62. Texas – Slade Heathcott, OF, Texas HS (TX)
63. Cleveland – Chris Dominguez, 3B, Louisville
64. Arizona – Ryan Buch, RHP, Monmouth
65. Los Angeles (NL) – Brett Wallach, RHP, Orange Coast JC (CA)
66. Florida – Billy Hamilton, SS, Taylorsville HS (MS)
67. St. Louis – A.J. Morris, RHP, Kansas State
68. Toronto – Evan Chambers, OF, Hillsborough JC (FL)
69. Houston – LeVon Washington, OF, Buchholz HS (FL)
70. Minnesota – Jake Eliopoulos, LHP, Sacred Heart Catholic HS (ON)
71. Chicago (AL) – Blake Smith, RHP/OF, California
72. New York (NL) – Kentrail Davis, OF, Tennessee
73. Milwaukee – Daniel Fields, SS, U. of Detroit Jesuit HS (MI)
74. Milwaukee – Jeff Kobernus, 2B, California
75. Philadelphia – Brian Goodwin, OF, Rocky Mount HS (NC)
76. New York (AL) – Steven Matz, LHP, Ward Melville HS (NY)
77. Boston – Brad Stillings, RHP, Kent State
78. Tampa Bay – Jake Barrett, RHP, Desert Ridge HS (AZ)
79. Chicago (NL) – Chris Dwyer, LHP, Clemson
80. Los Angeles (AL) – Brooks Pounders, RHP, Temecula Valley HS (CA)

Third Round

81. Washington – D.J. LeMahieu, 2B/SS, LSU
82. Seattle – Josh Phegley, C, Indiana
83. San Diego – David Hale, RHP, Princeton
84. Pittsburgh – Mike Ohlman, C, Lakewood Ranch HS (FL)
85. Baltimore – Garett Richards, RHP, Oklahoma
86. San Francisco – Justin Marks, LHP, Louisville
87. Atlanta – Randal Grichuk, OF, Lamar Consolidated HS (TX)
88. Cincinnati – Kyle Seager, 3B, North Carolina
89. Detroit – Mike Belfiore, LHP, Boston College
90. Colorado – Brooks Raley, LHP, Texas A&M
91. Kansas City – Andrew Susac, C, Jesuit HS (CA)
92. Oakland – David Holmberg, LHP, Port Charlotte HS (FL)
93. Texas – James Jones, LHP, Long Island
94. Cleveland – Ryan Jackson, SS, Miami
95. Arizona – Jason Stoffel, RHP, Arizona
96. Los Angeles (NL) – Todd Glaesmann, OF, Midway HS (TX)
97. Florida – Dane Williams, RHP, Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL)
98. St. Louis – Tommy Mendonca, 3B, Fresno State
99. Toronto – Andrew Doyle, RHP, Oklahoma
100. Houston – Matt den Dekker, OF, Florida
101. Minnesota – Jabari Blash, OF, Miami-Dade JC (FL)
102. Chicago (AL) – Cameron Garfield, C, Murrieta Valley HS (CA)
103. New York (NL) – Steve Baron, C, John A. Ferguson HS (FL)
104. Toronto – Chris Owings, SS, Gilbert HS (SC)
105. Milwaukee – Eric Smith, RHP, Rhode Island
106. Philadelphia – Austin Maddox, C, Eagle’s View Academy (FL)
107. Boston – Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor
108. Tampa Bay – Tyler Kehrer, LHP, Eastern Illinois
109. Chicago (NL) – Jeremy Hezelbaker, OF, Ball State
110. Los Angeles (AL) – Bryan Berglund, RHP, Royal HS (CA)

Supplemental Third Round

111. Houston – Dylan Floro, RHP, Buhach Colony HS (CA)

That’s all of the first day, slated to take place Tuesday, June 9.  What do you think?

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June 1, 2009 - Posted by | Mock Draft

81 Comments »

  1. For the Cubs, that fits their MO. Ever since Tim Wilken took over three years ago, they have signed a total of 10 high school players. Over the past two years, they have drafted only three HS players in the first 20 rounds (Josh Vitters, Matt Cerda, and Ryan Acosta).

    Arnett and Hazelbaker make sense. Dwyer I don’t know a whole lot about; isn’t he a draft eligible freshman? Are his signing demands high?

    Comment by Outshined_One | June 1, 2009 | Reply

    • Dwyer’s reported asking price hasn’t been leaked, but yes, he is a draft-eligible freshman. However, his leverage is about the same as a draft-eligible sophomore, as he doesn’t want to stick around to be a 23 year old junior draft prospect after being eligible again next year. I would venture a guess that Dwyer would sign for slot at 79, though, as it’s debatable that he’d move up significantly for next year, and the risk of him getting hurt is too high. Slot for that draft position will be between $450,000 and $475,000, so I’d guess that $500,000 would lock him up, which isn’t really extreme. I would guess that his asking price will be somewhere in the neighborhood of $600,000, but he probably won’t get that unless someone’s very, very high on him.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 1, 2009 | Reply

  2. Man, I’d love to get Davidson in the supplemental round; he sounds like he’s right up the Brewers’ alley. I can only hope he lasts that long. I’d be a little disappointed if they popped Storen in the first round, though.

    Comment by battlekow | June 1, 2009 | Reply

    • Jason Churchill mentioned in his May 30 post on the ESPN Draft Blog that a few teams look at Storen as a starter, and that versatility drives up his draft stock. He’s got great stuff, so I wouldn’t be too disappointed if I were you. There’s a good chance he’s not even there when the Brewers pick.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 1, 2009 | Reply

      • Interesting. Your reply prompted me to research Storen a bit more, and I found this quote from the Sporting News:

        “What was a serviceable changeup in 2008 turned into a plus pitch and helped Storen establish himself as the team’s closer…”

        Is his changeup really a plus pitch? Seems like more than a few teams would be interested in him as a starter if he had a plus changeup to go with his fastball and slider.

        Comment by battlekow | June 1, 2009

      • I’m not sure that Storen even used that so-called split changeup much at all in game action this year. He used his fastball and slider almost exclusively. It’s definitely the weakest of his offerings. That sentence is very misleading. There’s also a mistake in there that lists his age as 20, and he turned 21 last August.

        Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009

  3. Is Kent Matthes worthy of a sandwich-round pick?

    Comment by j cruz | June 1, 2009 | Reply

    • The short answer is yes. In a draft where there’s a few teams with multiple early picks, someone will be tempted to take him, knowing that he’ll sign immediately for whatever he’s offered at slot. PG lists him at 83, BA at 63, and Keith Law leaves him out completely from his top 100. However, I do know that BA writers have mentioned a couple times that it does in fact make sense for him to go that early to a team with multiple picks and a budget, and the Angels are just that.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  4. Where do u think Luke Bailey will fall after the Tommy-John surgery. Some still say top three rounds. Where do u have him going? I think he would be an excellent value after the third round.

    Comment by Jeremy | June 1, 2009 | Reply

    • There’s still a good chance he’s in the top 3 rounds. I just had trouble placing him, as most teams would choose the healthy option over the injured one, especially with so many good prep catchers in this draft. I have him going in round four, as some team will be able to work out some sort of deal overnight between the first and second day with him. I haven’t heard updates on his signability since his injury, so the key issue is how much his asking price has changed. If it hasn’t he’ll drop to round four or perhaps even lower.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  5. I’d love to hear why you see the Orioles making those picks.

    Comment by James F | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • Sure. The Gibson one is quite easy, as he’s been connected to them on more than one occasion by multiple sources. So I’ll go ahead with the Renfroe and Richards picks. Joe Jordan showed a desire to get better up the middle a year ago with young athletes, picking Xavier Avery and L.J. Hoes. I see Renfroe as a continuation of that. As a football prospect, Renfroe has shown good athleticism and his play at short tells the story of someone who will probably stick there. They’d likely want to pair him with Hoes up the middle for a number of years. Richards fits into the category of flamethrowing pitcher, something Jordan also has a pattern of coveting. He reminds me somewhat of Jake Arrieta, though Richards didn’t fall off the table, as he’s never been able to quite put things together. But he’ll be an extremely attractive target as a signable kid with a top arm.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  6. Can you elaborate a little more on Seattle selecting Pollock over a pitcher at #27, especially if they select Ackley #2? Also, where do you see 1B Jonathan Singleton being drafted? Thanks a ton, I’m really enjoying this blog

    Comment by Matt | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • I think it comes down to a choice between Pollock, Arnett, and Heckathorn there, and they probably would get at least one of Arnett or Heckathorn if they passed up on them there, but Pollock would be taken if they passed on him. They pick again at #33, so it’s just about the idea that you want your best package there, not just who’s exactly the best at this one exact spot. So getting both Pollock and Heckathorn would be a coup. If they chose Heckathorn or Arnett at #27, then at #33, the pitcher they passed up on and Pollock would probably both be gone. This way, they get both Pollock and one of the pitchers.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  7. You’re doing some awesome work here Andy. Thank you for putting so much time into this. As a somewhat knowledgeable Rangers fan, I can understand why you have them picking James Jones–he’s a left-hander with upside who throws hard–but his command and delivery scare me. Do you see the Rangers perhaps grabbing Austin Maddox or perhaps Steve Baron at that spot? Both seem pretty solid value in the 3rd round, and we love our catchers just as much as our lefties.

    Comment by Ryan | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • There is a good chance the Rangers pick a catcher early in this draft. I think a lot depends on who they nab with their supplemental first round pick and their second round pick. The Rangers stockpile arms as much as anyone, and that’s been a draft philosophy lately. If they pass on some pitchers at #44 and 62, then I don’t see them grabbing another hitter in round three. The value difference between drafting a high school catcher and college pitcher is quite minimal, and assuming they rate them out fairly equally, they’ll generally side with the pitcher. But I’d assume most of the prep catchers are at least on their radar. There’s not a catcher in the Rangers’ full-season minor leagues that projects to be a solid defensive option with a starter’s bat, so there’s definitely an organizational need there.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  8. Andy

    What’s more likely: Miller falling to 14 or White falling to 14?

    Comment by L | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • At this point it’s more likely White falls. Miller and White have been going opposite directions. But as my current mock shows you, there’s a chance both are on the board there, giving the Rangers a couple top tier options as far as ceiling goes.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

      • I know you’ve mentioned to me that you’d prefer White over Miller (I share the sentiment). Wouldn’t you think the Rangers would look long and hard at White over Miller if the situation arises? I’m not sure if they’ve really ever been in the conversation for White before the drop (definitely not to the extent that they’ve been mentioned with Miller), but isn’t it pretty feasible that they take White over Miller there?

        Comment by L | June 2, 2009

      • I do think the Rangers would consider White, but I also think Miller’s stock is soaring so much that he’s overtaken White on the majority of boards around the league. This is the week most teams hold their draft meetings, so this was a bad time for White to collapse. I’d say probably 20, maybe more, teams take Miller over White if given the option right now, but I still side with White. Miller’s just not polished enough.

        Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009

  9. Andy,

    whats with paxton falling to cinncinatti at 43? did that game against florida really hurt him that much/

    my guess is he goes in the first.

    cheers

    Comment by dan-o | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • It wasn’t just a single game. Paxton’s really dealt with issues that scare teams, mainly his penchant for allowing the home run. Signing with Boras is also a reason I dropped him that far. I kept looking at him side by side against the picks above him, and I ultimately decided that teams would prefer an equal player with a lower asking price.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  10. what’s the asking price for paxton? does using boras as an advisor really mean players just want a nice pay cheque?

    Comment by dan-o | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • There’s not a public asking price for Paxton, but usually signing with Boras does directly mean he wants more money, as players are aware of his reputation. You sign with Boras if you want money, not if you want to sign for slot or sign for hometown discounts. There’s plenty of other agents for that.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

      • appreciate your insite into the situation. just reading media here in Canada the family chose boras because they had the best business plan. it will be interesting to see where he lands on draft day.

        Comment by dan-o | June 2, 2009

  11. Andy, is White to the Tribe actually possible? You made my year. Also, Brad Grant mentioned going with the strength of the draft, pitching, in an interview in the PD. Do you really see them going position player in RDS. 2 & 3?

    Comment by Terry Thacker | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • It’s very possible that White lands with the Indians. He’s fallen that far in the eyes of many. Mid-first round is what I expect of him at this point. As for the Grant interview, I think he primarily meant that in terms of the first round, though the pitching goes fairly deep. However, I assume he’s going to go with the best available slot sign at each spot, and if that’s a hitter, I don’t think he’ll shy away from that. Going with a strength of a draft just usually means that the chances of the best player available being that strength are just higher.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  12. The Nats are taking a pitcher at ten accord to Bill Ladson from MLB and Thomas Boswell of the Post. I’d love it if they took Trout.

    Have you actually heard anything with them and Trout or did you just put that because you thought it made sense? Thanks.

    Comment by John | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • I know Trout’s name has popped up as a candidate with BA, and even though I read the reports about them favoring a pitcher, I think they will be changing their minds a few times between now and next Tuesday. The story about them favoring a pitcher came out before their draft meetings ever even started. So I don’t think it’s exactly concrete news.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  13. I saw that Hobgood has moved up your board quite a bit. I was wondering if you think there is any chance the Cards take him at 19? Also, being a Cards fan, I am interested if you think that any of the guys you profiled as risers in the MI could be there for the Cards with their 3rd round pick and actually make sense to take? (McCallum?)

    I just want to say that this site and your work is amazing. I am loving this stuff. I can’t wait for the draft and you are definitely giving all the information that we could possibly want to digest. Thanks!

    Comment by James | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • Hobgood might be an option, and I also think that if Matt Purke falls that far, he’s a definite possibility, as well. Those are the only two real prep pitching candidates for that slot. Tyler Skaggs has an outside chance, but I don’t see that happening.

      As for the middle infielders, yes, I think someone like McCallum might be an option in the third round. However, that’s his draft ceiling in my opinion, and he might be a better early second day option. Kobernus will likely be off the board by the Cardinals’ pick in the third, and both Schimpf and Lawson might be overdrafts in the third, but both are also signable. So we’ll see. I’d like McCallum for them at that spot, though.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  14. just wanted to say that i am quite excited to see that you have the rangers taking heathcott at 62… how much do you think it takes to buy him out of LSU?

    Comment by john | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • I think it will take at least $1 million to get Heathcott, maybe up into the Robbie Ross range of $1.5 million. But at least $1 million.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  15. Love that some people(You and BA) think the Royals will take Grant Green if he is there with the 12th pick. Could the Royals be a fit with Bailey in the 3rd or 4th round if he last that long? They have taken injured pitchers John Lamb and Keaton Hayenga in the last couple drafts so they obviously aren’t afraid of injuries.

    Comment by Clint | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • Bailey’s someone I’ve linked to the Royals a few times, both before the injury and after. I think a lot depends on how much they spend with their first pick. They’re definitely not cheap with their picks, so I could see a match if Bailey’s still holding out for first round money, which he should be. My guess is that Bailey’s available in the fourth round, and someone works an overnight deal with him between the Tuesday and Wednesday sessions. The Royals could be that team if no one else above them wants to pay his asking price.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  16. As a Cards fan and someone who closely watches the minors and drafts I have a few comments on your Cards choices. First of all let me say I am a HUGE fan of the pick you had for us in Round 2. AJ Morris is a very solid selection for us at that point. Other guys that I hope fall to us in Round 2 is a pair of SS in Mychal Givens and Nick Franklin. I am higher on Givens than Franklin as well. But if we get Morris in Round 2 I will be extremely happy with the pick like I was with Lynn (1st Supplemental) last year. The 3rd Round selection you have is Tommy Mendonca…as I don’t know a ton about him I know he has power and many analyst have him as a mid-late 2nd rounder…so to get him in the 3rd is a value. But if Volz from Baylor is there I take him personally. Now on to your 1st Round pick for us – Mike Minor, Vandy. I have seen a number of sites that have us linked to him…let me just say I am not impressed. I knew everyone says we should be looking at a LHP that projects as a starter but my philosophy in Round 1 is take the best player available. I really want Brothers to fall to #19 but there is a chance that won’t happen. On your board with the players available I would rather snag Jenkins, Mier, Purke or Arnett with that pick…with Purke being my main target. He has potential to be a legit #2 type guy (and possibly an ace…but lets not get to crazy!). I know he has a strong desire to go to college so it may take over slot to get him…but I say this is a guy that would be worth it…to me he is a Top 10 talent guy and to get a guy like that at #19 is worth the risk of paying a little extra. Sorry for the long post…I get excited this time of year :) Thanks for all the work you put into this site…it is awesome!

    Comment by JC | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  17. Nice site, good work. Do you think Mier will rise leading up to the draft with the overall dearth of middle infield prospects?

    Comment by Matt | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • I don’t think Mier rises higher in the first round than his talent deserves simply due to there being a lack of other quality middle infielders. That affects guys down in the normal 3rd-4th round range more than a true first rounder, which is what Mier is. He’s going to fit in the second half of the first round no matter what, as he’s just not good enough for that first half, regardless of the position depth in this class.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  18. Another great job on the mock.

    I wanted to ask you a question about the Indians — how much of a reach would it be for them to draft a guy like Arnett or Jenkins at 15? Also, who do you like better and how do you see them progressing?

    Comment by JP_Frost | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • I don’t think either is a major reach at 15. Both have had some helium lately, and Jenkins was mentioned as a possibility at #10 for the Nationals. Personally, I like Jenkins a bit better, but Arnett’s got the better arm. I think Arnett will have a fairly inconsistent career, but Jenkins will top out as a #3 type of guy. Arnett could be an A.J. Burnett type of pitcher that frustrates you with brilliance followed by disaster.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  19. When is catcher Tommy Joseph likely to be picked?

    Comment by j cruz | June 2, 2009 | Reply

    • I guess I haven’t really decided. Someone will likely take a chance on him in the supplemental first round if he’s around there. But I also think he might slide if people think he’s a first baseman. That’s my scenario here. It all depends on what individual teams see in his future in terms of his position. He’s a whole lot less valuable at first.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  20. [...] 2009 Amateur Draft Mock #7 Rounds 1-3 All three rounds for your viewing pleasure.  Comments have been omitted, so if you want some reasoning behind my [...] [...]

    Pingback by Top Posts « WordPress.com | June 2, 2009 | Reply

  21. Keith Law and Jason Churchill have said the Mariners are working on a pre-draft deal with HS C Steve Baron to save money and will probably use the 33rd pick on him.

    Comment by Rob T. | June 3, 2009 | Reply

    • Thanks for the heads up. Do you have a link for that? It’d be quite useful.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 3, 2009 | Reply

      • Its in Law’s new mock draft. Under the 27th pick explanation. If you don’t have insider here’s the quote.

        “They’re also going to take Ferguson HS (Miami) catcher Stephen Baron with one of their picks after this one, probably at 33, in a pre-draft deal.”

        http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2009/insider/news/story?id=4224965

        Comment by Rob T. | June 3, 2009

      • Yeah, just found it at the same time you posted. Thanks again.

        Comment by andyseiler | June 3, 2009

      • And that means his big weekend in Sebring must have really had an impact. That might put him near Stassi and Myers in draft position.

        Comment by andyseiler | June 3, 2009

  22. Purke will never last to 28.

    Comment by hmmm | June 3, 2009 | Reply

    • if he wants, and really pushes, for 6 mil or a porcello-type deal then he can def fall/last to 28

      Comment by knockoutking | June 3, 2009 | Reply

  23. How far out of the third round are the Northern California pitchers Scott Griggs, Christian Jones and Mark Appel?

    How about Chris Jenkins, the Stanford commit?

    Comment by riptorn | June 3, 2009 | Reply

    • Griggs was in first round consideration before his big command problems this year. I think he falls to the early second day, and he might not sign for slot there, so he might fall even further, as he’s committed to UCLA.

      Jones is probably an early second day pick, but somewhere in the seventh round range. The odds of him heading to Oregon are quite high.

      Appel is below Griggs in my book, though he’s still a 5th-6th rounder. With the Stanford commitment, someone will probably have to pony up a huge amount of money for him, making it likely he’ll slide or simply won’t sign.

      Jenkins’ velocity was down a bit later in the spring, and I’ve felt that scouts have kind of soured on him due to that and his Stanford commitment. He’s probably a 7th-10th round guy when you take out signability, but factoring that in, I’d say he’s going to school.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 3, 2009 | Reply

  24. Do you think the A’s rate Leake higher than Miller and White? Eric Kubota recently hinted that the A’s are likely to end up drafting a pitcher and that power arms are a strength in this draft. Just wondered what your thoughts were on their thought process should they be faced with a choice of Leake, Miller, White and Purke as well.

    Also I don’t know too much about David Holmberg – what kind of a talent is he?

    Thanks alot for all your time in doing this – it is much appreciated by everyone.

    Comment by DeJay | June 3, 2009 | Reply

    • First, I don’t see the A’s going over slot, and if they do, it won’t be by a considerable margin. So that eliminates Matt Purke right off the bat. White’s a Boras client, and if he’s seeking more than slot there, that also reduces the chances he gets picked there. There’s probably some chance that Oakland has considered Miller, but usually the A’s have gone with polished prep pitchers when going the prep route, and Miller’s the least polished of the prep arms that are available early. Leake just makes sense in that he provides solid draft value, still has upside, and he could also move quickly. His athleticism is a plus.

      As for Holmberg, he’s a kid that’s fallen a little bit this spring. And he really hasn’t done anything bad. He’s just one of those prep lefties that relies on pitchability and a varied arsenal. In other words, he’s a kid that could turn into Brett Anderson. He’s right up the A’s alley in terms of prep pitchers they usually favor.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 3, 2009 | Reply

  25. Andy,

    The Jays tend to be fairly predictable when it comes to geography, and draftee background, telling me that while Jenkins might be good value for 1/20, Kennesaw State is not where they will be looking. They tend to draft from big programs, with special focus on California and Florida. In that light, I kind of question the two third rounders as well, bearing in mind the con sequences aren’t quite as severe down there.

    Comment by R.A. Wagman | June 3, 2009 | Reply

    • I’ve read that the Blue Jays are actually connected to Jenkins, so that’s why I picked him. As for the third rounders, they actually compare quite favorably to past picks by the Jays. Owings compares to Tyler Pastornicky, but with better tools, and Doyle compares well to Andrew Liebel.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 3, 2009 | Reply

  26. Andy, are there any signability concern over Nick Franklin? If not, I could easily see the Jays popping him in the compensation round

    Comment by R.A. Wagman | June 3, 2009 | Reply

    • I don’t know of his signability being a major concern. He’s definitely in consideration for the supplemental first round for a few teams, and sliding to 56 here is just a matter of who goes before him.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 3, 2009 | Reply

  27. Is there a chance SS Mychal Givens drops to the Cards in Round 2 (#67 overall)? What are your thoughts on this kid?

    Comment by JC | June 3, 2009 | Reply

    • There’s always the chance, but I don’t see it as likely. He’s got some of the best pure tools in the entire draft class, and while he’s not refined, there are plenty of teams that covet the tools. He’s also considered very signable, meaning that him being a prep isn’t a barrier to a team signing him for slot.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 3, 2009 | Reply

  28. Andy, ive been watching Monmouth baseball games forever. Latley we have had a pitching senstation of who you think will be a second rounder. Whats the deal with Ryan Buch and do you think he is a definite second rounder? great site thanks for the time.

    Steve

    Comment by Steve | June 3, 2009 | Reply

    • I wouldn’t say he’s a definite second rounder, but I’d say he’s one of the few college pitchers with significant upside, making his stock very high. He’s a very signable player with an improving fastball and deadly curve, so the second round is probably the best possibility. He won’t last into the second day, though, as no one will pass him up late in the third round.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 3, 2009 | Reply

  29. Andy,

    I really can’t see the Dodgers taking a college arm like Oliver over prep pitchers like …

    RHP Zach Von Rosenberg – HS (LA)
    RHP Keyvius Sampson – HS (FL)
    RHP Brody Colvin – HS(LA)

    or even fellow lefty Matt Bashore, if you are looking at the college route. It is just not in his MO.

    The selection of Nick Franklin at #56 was solid.

    Wallach seems to be a bit a a reach at #65. All reports I have seen/read show him as a 4th/5th rounder and there are some other players that I see them preferring this high …

    Daniel Fields
    Brian Goodwin
    Randal Grichuk

    At #96, I am not really sold on Glaesmann …

    Reggie Williams Jr. – bloodlines
    Max Walla – Alburquerque product (Home of LAD AAA affiliate)
    Kendal Volz
    JR Murphy

    … are players I have on my board for them.

    Comment by Bluefan | June 3, 2009 | Reply

  30. No Tommy Joseph in the first 111 picks? He’ll be gone before the second round.

    Comment by Coach | June 3, 2009 | Reply

    • Yes, there’s a good chance of that. I still wonder about him from time-to-time, as there’s huge variance in how people view him.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 3, 2009 | Reply

  31. Garfield 3rd round? He will be gone before the end of the second round.

    Comment by Phil | June 3, 2009 | Reply

    • That’s no sure thing by any means. Garfield is ranked at #78 by BA, 88 by PG, and isn’t in Keith Law’s top 100. The third round begins at pick #81, so Garfield’s really on the cusp in terms of talent. While some above him will fall for various reasons, there will be others that jump over him, as well. There are tons of prep catchers, and if the Mariners are choosing Steve Baron for their signability pick, that shows you that not every team wants Garfield over some of the other options. He’s a borderline 2nd/3rd round prospect, and his placement in my mock isn’t that out of the ordinary.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 3, 2009 | Reply

  32. What do you make of Keyvius Sampson? Have you seen him pitch or know anything about him?

    Comment by Jimmy | June 3, 2009 | Reply

    • There’s some solid speculation that Sampson is a future reliever, as his delivery is pretty much a max effort one. He’s got solid stuff, but teams shy away from drafting prep pitchers who profile as future relievers.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 6, 2009 | Reply

  33. if Seager is still there, the Braves would JUMP on him in a heart beat.

    Comment by chris | June 4, 2009 | Reply

  34. Andy, convince me about your #55 pick, Joe Kelly from Riverside. What are you hearing? I’d really prefer the Giants take Chris Dominguez there. And thanks for all your work – this is fantastic!

    Comment by Lyle | June 4, 2009 | Reply

    • The Giants have had some success with power arms in the form of Brian Wilson, and I wouldn’t be surprised to find out they want more of the same. Kelly’s probably got the best pure arm of the college relief crop, though combined with the least polish, so that’s why he’s a second rounder instead of higher. Dominguez is nice and all, but I think the majority of teams have him lower than Kelly on their boards.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 6, 2009 | Reply

  35. Can you elaborate on why y ou have RHP Ryan Buch going second round to Arizona?

    Comment by Jackie | June 4, 2009 | Reply

    • Buch is considered a signable college draftee with some decent upside, and he’s really risen this spring. He’s probably someone squarely in the first day, and the second round is as high as he’ll probably go. Arizona’s looking for signable pitchers with some upside, and that’s the connection.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 6, 2009 | Reply

  36. [...] Callis’s mock has Shelby Miller falling to the Rangers at #14, as does Andy Seiler’s mock (which goes three rounds [...]

    Pingback by Mock drafts and draft talk | June 6, 2009 | Reply

  37. Ok, how in the world do you leave Tommy Joseph out of the first 3 rounds? Is that an oversight? Im hearing he doesnt fall past 44 to Texas. Come on, please do better homework.

    Comment by Daniel | June 6, 2009 | Reply

    • Read a few posts after this one.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 6, 2009 | Reply

  38. [...] Andy Seiler (6/1): RHP Drew Storen, Stanford University [...]

    Pingback by Who Will the Brewers Draft? | June 6, 2009 | Reply

  39. [...] Here’s my most current mock.  I'll be posting my final mock draft of 3 rounds in the afternoon before the draft begins, and I'll post the link on here.  In addition, I'll be posting a list of some sleepers. [...]

    Pingback by Draft Day Thread #1 | June 9, 2009 | Reply

  40. This is off topic but figured this would be a good place to ask. A friend was drafted after the #1000 pick. Do players drafted that low ever get signing bonuses?

    Comment by Jason | June 11, 2009 | Reply

    • Yes, if he signs, he’ll get a signing bonus. The floor is usually $1000.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 11, 2009 | Reply


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