Andy Seiler's MLB Draft Blog

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My Draft Board For the Sickels Mock Draft

My board is 93 picks long here, which was the last pick I had to make.

1. Steven Strasburg
2. Dustin Ackley
3. Tyler Matzek
4. Jacob Turner
5. Aaron Crow
6. Mike Leake
7. Tanner Scheppers
8. Alex White
9. Donavan Tate
10. Zack Wheeler
11. Grant Green
12. Chad James
13. Shelby Miller
14. Jared Mitchell
15. Max Stassi
16. Rex Brothers
17. Tim Wheeler
18. Bobby Borchering
19. Wil Myers
20. Matt Purke
21. Drew Storen
22. Everett Williams
23. Matt Hobgood
24. Rich Poythress
25. Chad Jenkins
26. Mike Trout
27. Tyler Skaggs
28. Tony Sanchez
29. James Paxton
30. Jiovanni Mier
31. Kyle Gibson
32. Eric Arnett
33. Tommy Joseph
34. Slade Heathcott
35. Mike Minor
36. Andy Oliver
37. Garrett Gould
38. AJ Pollock
39. Reymond Fuentes
40. Marc Krauss
41. Brody Colvin
42. Randal Grichuk
43. Kyle Heckathorn
44. Zack Von Rosenberg
45. Matt Davidson
46. Jason Kipnis
47. Brad Boxberger
48. Kent Matthes
49. Billy Bullock
50. Madison Younginer
51. Jeff Malm
52. Brett Jackson
53. Ryan Buch
54. Aaron Miller
55. Mychal Givens
56. LeVon Washington
57. Keyvius Sampson
58. Alex Wilson
59. Sam Dyson
60. Garrett Richards
61. Ben Tootle
62. Miles Hamblin
63. Jake Barrett
64. Brett Wallach
65. David Renfroe
66. Victor Black
67. Josh Phegley
68. Brooks Pounders
69. Angelo Songco
70. Joe Kelly
71. Jeff Kobernus
72. Luke Bailey
73. Jacob Stewart
74. Colton Cain
75. Ben Paulsen
76. Nick Franklin
77. Matt Bashore
78. Cameron Garfield
79. Dane Williams
80. Billy Hamilton
81. Blake Smith
82. Matt Dominguez
83. Todd Glaesmann
84. Andrew Susac
85. Kyle Seager
86. David Hale
87. Jason Stoffel
88. Steven Matz
89. Jake Eliopoulos
90. Evan Chambers
91. AJ Morris
92. David Holmberg
93. Kendal Volz

June 6, 2009 Posted by | Andy's Draft Board | Leave a comment

My Sickels Mock Draft Picks

I picked for the Rangers, and these are the players I got in the mock:

14. Chad James, LHP, Yukon HS (OK)
44. Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU
62. Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Zachary HS (LA)
93. Billy Bullock, RHP, Florida

I had them at 12, 14, 45, and 50 on my personal board. I’m happy.

June 6, 2009 Posted by | Andy's Draft Board | 5 Comments

2008 Draft First Round Stats Update

Here’s a quick roundup of how the first rounders from a year ago:

1. Tampa Bay – Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA): .291/.347/.418 in 182 ABs for low-A Bowling Green, 15 walks, 45 strikeouts, 1 steal in 7 attempts (!), struggling vs. lefties
2. Pittsburgh – Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: .240/.344/.448 in 183 ABs for high-A Lynchburg, 31 walks, 54 strikeouts, much weaker vs. lefties
3. Kansas City – Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL): .265/.372/.398 for low-A Burlington, 29 walks, 45 strikeouts, struggling heavily vs. lefties
4. Baltimore – Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: 4-2, 2.16 ERA in 66.2 innings for high-A Frederick, 74 strikeouts, 21 walks, 56 hits, 5 home runs allowed, even splits
5. San Francisco – Buster Posey, C, Florida State: .307/.397/.508 in 199 ABs for high-A San Jose, 25 walks, 32 strikeouts, 5 steals in 5 attempts, mashing lefties
6. Florida – Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA): .184/.233/.331 in 136 ABs for low-A Greensboro, 9 walks, 54 strikeouts, dominated by lefties
7. Cincinnati – Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami: .302/.378/.503 in 169 ABs for high-A Sarasota, 22 walks, 28 strikeouts; .250/.348/.400 in 20 ABs for double-A Carolina, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts, struggles vs. lefties
8. Chicago (AL) – Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: .299/.366/.497 in 147 ABs for double-A Birmingham, 14 walks, 24 strikeouts; .464/.448/.679 in 28 ABs for triple-A Charlotte, 0 walks, 2 strikeouts; 0-6 in majors
9. Washington – Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: DID NOT SIGN.
10. Houston – Jason Castro, C, Stanford: .295/.385/.505 in 200 ABs for high-A Lancaster, 28 walks, 40 strikeouts, a little weaker vs. lefties
11. Texas – Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: .325/.444/.503 in 151 ABs for double-A Frisco, 32 walks, 30 strikeouts, struggles vs. lefties, currently on DL
12. Oakland – Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami: .308/.372/.564 in 39 ABs for high-A Stockton, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
13. St. Louis – Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona State: .281/.403/.438 in 128 ABs for double-A Springfield, 18 walks, 34 strikeouts; .238/.270/.333 in 84 ABs for triple-A Memphis, 3 walks, 20 strikeouts
14. Minnesota – Aaron Hicks, OF, Wilson HS (CA): Has not played.
15. Los Angeles (NL) – Ethan Martin, RHP, Stephens County HS (GA): 3-3, 4.43 ERA in 44.2 innings for low-A Great Lakes, 54 strikeouts, 26 walks, 39 hits, 1 home run allowed, hit hard by lefties
16. Milwaukee – Brett Lawrie, 2B, Brookswood SS (BC): .261/.338/.477 in 176 ABs for low-A Wisconsin, 20 walks, 33 strikeouts, 11 steals in 18 attempts, mashing lefties
17. Toronto – David Cooper, 1B, California: .239/.316/.337 in 205 ABs for double-A New Hampshire, 23 walks, 43 strikeouts, weaker vs. lefties
18. New York (NL) – Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona State: .283/.367/.461 in 191 ABs for high-A St. Lucie, 26 walks, 49 strikeouts, dominated by lefties
19. Chicago (NL) – Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU: 0-0, 1.75 ERA in 25.2 innings for high-A Daytona, 22 strikeouts, 10 walks, 21 hits, 0 home runs allowed, dominating lefties
20. Seattle – Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia: 2-0, 5.25 ERA in 12 innings for double-A West Tenn, 18 strikeouts, 11 walks, 8 hits, 1 home run allowed, even splits
21. Detroit – Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona: 0-1, 3.27 ERA in 22 innings for Detroit (ML), 20 strikeouts, 19 walks, 13 hits, 1 home run allowed, dominates righties
22. New York (NL) – Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina: .228/.343/.413 in 167 ABs for high-A St. Lucie, 27 walks, 30 strikeouts, relatively even splits
23. San Diego – Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest: .200/.390/.339 in 165 ABs for low-A Ft. Wayne, 47 walks, 47 strikeouts, weaker vs. righties
24. Philadelphia – Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury School (CT): Has not played.
25. Colorado – Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: 3-3, 2.18 ERA in 45.1 innings for low-A Asheville, 66 strikeouts, 15 walks, 35 hits, 2 home runs allowed; 0-0, 2.77 ERA in 13 innings for high-A Modesto, 14 strikeouts, 4 walks, 11 hits, 2 home runs allowed, dominates lefties
26. Arizona – Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona: 0-0, 1.42 ERA in 19 innings for double-A Mobile, 21 strikeouts, 13 walks, 9 hits, 1 home run allowed, even splits; 0-1, 2.70 ERA in 3.1 innings for Arizona (ML), 4 strikeouts, 1 walk, 3 hits, 0 home runs allowed
27. Minnesota – Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Miami: 2-3, 1.32 ERA in 54.2 innings for high-A Ft. Myers, 33 strikeouts, 22 walks, 37 hits, 1 home run allowed, relatively even splits, tons of ground balls
28. New York (AL) – Gerrit Cole, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS (CA): DID NOT SIGN.
29. Cleveland – Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, Pitt CC (NC): .303/.378/.527 in 201 ABs for high-A Kinston, 21 walks, 43 strikeouts, better vs. righties
30. Boston – Casey Kelly, RHP/SS, Sarasota HS (FL): 6-1, 1.12 ERA in 48.1 innings for low-A Greenville, 39 strikeouts, 9 walks, 32 hits, 0 home runs allowed; 0-1, 2.31 ERA in 11.2 innings for high-A Salem, 10 strikeouts, 1 walk, 9 hits, 1 home run allowed, relatively even splits

June 6, 2009 Posted by | Previous Drafts | 1 Comment

Thoughts on Pitcher Abuse in College

I’ve been inspired to write down some thoughts on pitcher abuse in college programs after a response to a comment I made on Minor League Ball about the fact that Kyle Gibson was abused at Mizzou. Here’s some thoughts:

Kyle Gibson, Missouri

Starting with a February 20 start, here’s his pitch counts and innings:

92/6 innings
109/7
114/8
124/9
117/9
45/2 (7 runs on 7 hits)
35/1 (3 runs on 4 hits)
118/9
116/9
132/9
114/6.2
124/8
126/8
15/1 (getting work in after layoff)
98/6
102/8 (dead arm game vs. Monmouth)

Take out the 15 pitch outing for work. That’s 104.4 pitches per start, including the bad 2 start stretch. 114.3 if you take those out. 14.82 pitches per inning if you take out the 15 pitch outing. Let’s stretch all those numbers out to a 33 start season for reference, taking out the 1 inning outing and looking at the other 15 starts:

232.467 innings pitched
3445.2 pitches thrown

That would have put him 9th in baseball for total pitches thrown on the 2008 leaderboard. At 21 years old.

Now, I know I’m going to get the argument that he only starts once a week. Ok, let’s say then that he pitched for 3 months, which is half a season in MLB. So we’ll bring down the multiplier a little, to 2 instead of 2.2 Here’s the totals:

211.1 innings pitched
3132 pitched thrown

Now we’re putting him in 40th for pitches thrown, 4 pitches behind Derek Lowe. At the age of 21. As one of the top draft prospects in all of baseball. And it obviously has had an effect on his arm.

Alex White, North Carolina

Starting with a February 20 start, here’s his pitch counts and innings:

90/5
100/6.1
108/6
108/6
112/7
105/7.1
121/8
132/8.1
121/9
108/6.2
110/6
121/7
44/2.1 (8 runs on 6 hits)
104/4.2

That’s 106 pitches per start. 16.6 pitches per inning. Let’s stretch all those numbers out to a 33 start season for reference:

211.357 innings pitched
3498 pitches thrown

That would have put him 9th in baseball for total pitches thrown on the 2008 leaderboard. At 21 years old.

Let’s say then that he pitched for 3 months, which is half a season in MLB. So we’ll bring down the multiplier a little, to 2 instead of 33/14. Here’s the totals:

179.3 innings pitched
2968 pitches thrown

Now we’re putting him in 61st for pitches thrown, 30 pitches behind Ian Snell. At the age of 21.

James Paxton, Kentucky

Starting with a February 20 start, here’s his pitch counts and innings:

78/5.2
97/6
102/5.2
108/6
121/6.2
69/2 (9 runs on 10 hits)
89/5
116/6
111/7
119/7
132/8
122/8
93/5.1

That’s 104.4 pitches per start. 17.3 pitches per inning. Let’s stretch all those numbers out to a 33 start season for reference:

198.846 innings pitched
3444.692 pitches thrown

That would have put him 9th in baseball for total pitches thrown on the 2008 leaderboard. At 21 years old.

Let’s say then that he pitched for 3 months, which is half a season in MLB. So we’ll bring down the multiplier a little, to 2 instead of 33/13. Here’s the totals:

156.67 innings pitched
2714 pitches thrown

Now we’re putting him in 82nd for pitches thrown, 9 pitches behind Dave Bush. At the age of 21.

All in all, you can see that these workloads are all quite bad, and while they’re all horrible when used in a 33 start reference frame, they’re still quite bad when drawn against a season’s length. Kyle Gibson’s workload takes the cake. In terms of raw pitch count per game, Alex White is the winner. But he didn’t consistently go up as high as Gibson did. It took White five starts to reach the level Gibson was at in his second start, and Gibson’s two bad games help his raw numbers. All in all, college coaches misuse their starters, especially their stud Friday starters, and Gibson has been the recipient of some bad decision-making.

June 6, 2009 Posted by | Random Thoughts | , , | 3 Comments

Draft Prospect Video – Donavan Tate

Workout footage from Donavan Tate from August 2008.

Direct link here. Video from youtube.com, username baseballfactorytv.

June 6, 2009 Posted by | Draft Prospect Videos | | Leave a comment

   

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