Andy Seiler's MLB Draft Blog

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Day Before Draft Day Open Thread

Post questions, observations, links, comments, or whatever in this thread. I’ll be answering and commenting as the day goes along, so check back. 33 hours.

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June 8, 2009 - Posted by | Open Thread

61 Comments »

  1. Hey Andy, love the blog. I was wondering if you’ve heard anyone on Mychal Givens lately? Ive always been a fan and would love my Nats to take him if he makes it to #50, start him as a SS and if he can’t hit move that slider into the bullpen, what do you think?

    Also, heard anything on Nick Akins? I’ve always been intrigued by him. Thanks, keep up the good work

    Comment by Cjrugger | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • The latest I’ve heard on Givens is that he’s likely to begin his pro career as a shortstop, and he could have his name called as early as the supplemental first round. His Oklahoma State commitment isn’t considered that strong, so a team that favors athleticism could take him high. They always have the mound as a backup. There’s a decent chance the Nats might want him at #50, but there’s really no knowing how teams favor him, as he’s one of the more polarizing draft prospects in this class.

      As for Akins, I’ve read some criticisms of his pitch recognition, which is no different from 3 years ago. I’d say he’ll be a mid-round pick, somewhere in the range of the 15th round, and I bet he returns to school at Vanguard. There’s really nowhere to go but up for a guy as naturally talented as him.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • Thanks Andy

      So you haven’t heard of any teams bringing Givens in for a workout?

      Comment by Cjrugger | June 8, 2009 | Reply

      • I haven’t seen any specific workouts, but usually only the kids who really, really impress teams in workouts get mentions to the press.

        Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009

  2. Hey Andy, where do you rate Josh Spence after that dominant performance for Arizona State last night? Everyone on the Indians board has been wondering what short, soft tossing lefty the Tribe might go after. Spence looks like a candidate.

    Comment by Rocky55 | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • He’s a legitimate prospect, just not an elite one. He showed his plus offspeed stuff yesterday, but he also showed that he doesn’t pitch off his fastball, a trait kind of frowned upon. He could be a top 5 rounder without too much of an overdraft, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like the Tribe go after him.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  3. I’m a bit cranky about the draft being moved from ESPN to MLB network. My cable provider (Mediacom) doesn’t have MLB network. I typically tape the drafts, but I guess that won’t be an option this year.

    Maybe Strasburg can slide to 11 and cheer me up 🙂

    Glad to see that you have moved to your own domain. Have you taken a look at your stats via something like Google Analytics or Sitemeter? I’d be curious to see what sort of traffic you’re doing. I’ve recommended to site to several people.

    Also, if you intend to make a few bucks, you could look at something like adsense on the site. If that’s not your goal, that’s cool, too.

    Great site. Sickels has a lot of good draft stuff on his site, but it’s nice to have a site that is 100% draft, so you don’t have to filter through the other stuff.

    Comment by Kosmo @ The Casual Observer | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  4. Andy, any new news on Tate and White? And any idea how far will Gibson fall?

    Comment by Ben | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • White probably secured an early spot with his Super Regional start. Tate’s still a candidate to fall if the Padres pass up on him, but there’s fewer legitimate options at 3 for them. I keep hearing $6MM+ for him. As for Gibson, he probably still goes in the first round, though his injury is more serious than he’s letting on. It could be indicative of something to come. But I don’t see him lasting past the first round, as the Rockies at #32 wouldn’t hesitate to pick him if he’s there.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  5. Hey Andy, how many rounds will you be shadow drafting? All 50 would be rather ambitious–Sickels got about halfway last year for his Shadow Twins.

    Comment by Ryan | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • I’m planning on going through day two, which is approximately 30 rounds. After that, the number of guys who even sign is few and far between.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  6. I’ve heard from someone very close to the Padres that “Minor to the Padres @ 3” exaggerate the Padres’ interest. Can you confirm/deny?

    Comment by Peter Friberg | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • I can’t officially confirm, but that’s become the general consensus with everyone’s sources. So that leads me to believe it’s legit that Minor is out of the running for #3 and pretty much has been for awhile.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  7. Can you talk about the possibility of the A’s drafting Tate tomorrow if he falls that far. Also the A’s lack supplemental and second round picks. Who do you think they will be considering in the Third. Do you think Tommy Mendonca will be around still at that point?

    Comment by Designatedforassignment | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • Mendonca’s chances of being there are probably 20-30%, depending on what other college hitters go in the supplemental first. If more go than expected, then the teams in the second would jump on Mendonca as one of the more powerful bats left.

      As for Tate, I’ve been hearing weird rumors for the past week or so that the A’s are the other first round match for Tate, but only if they think his commitment isn’t worth $6MM+. They would probably go into the Ynoa range for him, though.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  8. Apparently Kyle Jensen was better than Tim Wheeler and Brett Jackson in their group workout with the Giants.
    They will now consider him in the 2nd.
    Is he as good as his junior year…and worth the pick?

    Comment by BigDaddy | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • His season wasn’t actually that good. He really struggled with making contact at times, and it affected his power and average outputs. However, he’s one of the more powerful college bats available, and if someone thinks they can get him to calm down from the showing off type of mentality in the box, then they have someone with real second round talent. I’m not surprised the Giants like him, as players like Jensen are much better in workouts than in games.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  9. Besides Harper in 2011, are there any players who are clearly top 10 picks in the 2010 or 2011 draft?

    Comment by Jeffrey | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • Matt Harvey of UNC, Anthony Ranaudo of LSU, and Kyle Blair of San Diego are the big three for next spring. It’s too early to really anoint them yet, though.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

      • Derek Dietrich 3B Georgia Tech

        …stupid Astros!

        Comment by Joshua B. | June 8, 2009

      • Dietrich’s regarded fairly similarly to how Grant Green was a year ago. A good summer and he’ll solidify his spot.

        Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009

      • Where do you see Rick Hague going next year?

        Comment by battlekow | June 8, 2009

      • @battlekow: It’s still to early to tell, but yes, Hague is right on the cusp of being a first rounder next year. If he has a great summer, he’s probably in the middle of the first round picture when Rice starts up again for their 2010 season.

        Comment by andyseiler | June 9, 2009

    • What are the chances that Harper gets his GED and enters the 2010 draft?

      Comment by Matt | June 8, 2009 | Reply

      • I’d say as low as 10%. I think his adviser, the wonderful Scott Boras, knows his stuff. He knows that the odds say that kids who enter too early into pro ball aren’t as likely to succeed, and Boras’ big paydays aren’t in the draft, but with clients that enjoy successful Major League careers. Harper’s best chance for a quality Major League career is to stay in school until his normal draft year of 2011. Playing JUCO ball does him no good. If it’s about risk of injury, he’s probably more likely to be hurt against stronger competition in the JUCO ranks. If it’s about getting money earlier, he’s more likely to cash in at the age of 18, when there’s less certainty about his maturity, etc. Just too many negatives from going the quick and easy route to money now. Scott Boras is a smart man, and I don’t think he’ll do that.

        Comment by andyseiler | June 9, 2009

  10. Is Matt Cain a fair mlb comp for Shelby Miller’s potential?

    Comment by BigDaddy | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • Possibly. Miller would really have to develop a changeup to be that good, and I simply don’t see that happening. But it’s possible.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  11. Apparently the Red Sox and Yankees have both been doggedly pursuing Mississippi SS/RHP David Renfroe. Will he be a first rounder? Or are both teams more likely to wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to get him?

    Comment by Outshined_One | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • I should clarify in saying that Renfroe is currently a HS student in Mississippi and not a member of the Ole Miss baseball team (although he is committed there).

      Comment by Outshined_One | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • Renfroe isn’t likely to last to the end of the second round. If the Yankees or Red Sox want him, they will have to take him in the first round. Luckily, he has first round upside and wants first round money – sounds like a perfect fit – if it weren’t for that aforementioned Ole Miss commit.

      Comment by Joshua B. | June 8, 2009 | Reply

      • I’ve gotten the feeling that the Yankees and Red Sox like Renfroe simply because they don’t like the other names they see falling to them in the first. If all else fails, draft for ceiling. The big detractor is that Renfroe doesn’t just want first round slot money, but he apparently wants Casey Kelly money, which is to say $3 million, but the team who gets him can spread the bonus over 5 years due to his football skills.

        Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009

  12. How about some bests? Best power, best changeup, etc?

    Comment by battlekow | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • I can make a quick post tomorrow. Nice idea.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

      • I would love this as well, thanks Andy.

        Comment by Joshua B. | June 8, 2009

  13. Hey Andy any chance Jeff Malm sneaks into the first round? What is his upside and comps?

    Comment by bouncer | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • There’s not much of a first round chance for Malm. I’ve seen comparisons to Eric Hosmer, but Malm’s simply not that good. To begin, he’s very limited to first base, and he needs to prove he can really hit as a prep first baseman to warrant a top selection. Hosmer hit in a tougher environment, and Malm had some of the best lineup protection in America in such a good baseball program at Bishop Gorman. I think he’ll hit for average, but the power isn’t breathtaking, placing him as a supplemental first rounder to second rounder. I’d say Adam LaRoche is what I think of when I watch him. Not the stance, but the overall package. His upside is pretty much that, if not a tick higher. However, his USC commitment is supposedly pretty strong, but I haven’t seen bonus demands on paper.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  14. Andy, do you believe the reports that the Mariners are going to cut a below-slot deal at #33 to pick a high priced talent that falls?

    Comment by Paul | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • I think they’ll cut a deal, but not because they’ll get someone big who falls at #27. Ackley alone will cost a boatload, so even if they go slot at #27, their budget is almost there already. Cutting a deal at #33 makes sense if it’s for the right person on their board. But I don’t think it gratly affects their #27 pick as much as it does the picks coming after, where they might want to get someone with a slightly-overslot bonus in later rounds.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  15. at #27 that is.

    Comment by Paul | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  16. i’m about convinced the Royals are gonna take Wil Myers tomorrow with their first pick. he must have had a real kick ass work out. that’s a small reach, right? but not that large?

    Comment by keith | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • Yeah, not that large. You have to remember that Detroit’s considered him at #9, and his pure tools are better than Max Stassi’s in most people’s books. It’s just that Myers doesn’t have much experience behind the plate. His value greatly diminishes without his position at catcher. But don’t feel bad if you get him. In terms of pure talent, I’d probably have him in my top 15. Just be patient with him when he goes through some early catching and hitting struggles as the result of learning catching on the fly in the pros.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  17. If you were drafting for the Giants at #86: Chris Dominguez or Tom Mendonca?

    Also, what do you think of Kyle Bellows (SJSU) and Jeff Johnson (Ohlone) and where do you see them possibly going, they are both local Bay Area kids…

    Comment by robertee | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • I pick Dominguez. The power there is tremendous, and he’s improved year-to-year, and I love to see that improvement, even if the strikeout totals are still high. It shows that he knows what to work on. His arm is also amazing. I like the total package over Mendonca’s. But not by a lot.

      Bellows is probably off the board before the double digit rounds, and Johnson is either a late-late round sign or an undrafted kid. Not much to say about Johnson. Haven’t seen enough about him to really comment. I like Bellows in general, but I wonder if his season was more of a fluke. He’s got to hit enough for a corner probably, and I don’t see that happening 9 times out of 10.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  18. Andy, what do you think of the thought that Aaron Crow can fall out of the first round (as KLaw said)?

    Comment by Pablo Zevallos | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • Not likely. That’s all I have to say.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  19. It appears 2 of the hardest higher end prospects to predict in this draft is Alex White and Tanner Scheppers (Gibson with his injury may be in this category now). Personally what is the latest each will slip before someone just has to draft them? What is Scheppers top end potential if healthy (more of a #1 or #2?)?

    Comment by JC | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • Both at #15 for me. If they’re both there, though, that’s tough. Scheppers might not last past #14 to the Rangers, but both are strong candidates at #15 to the Indians if they fall that far. I don’t subscribe to the doomsday scenario shown by Keith Law that Scheppers could fall out of the first. No way.

      If healthy, Scheppers is a possible #1. If he develops an average third pitch, he’s a big league starter in the time it took Lincecum to reach the Majors.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  20. Any notable sleeper picks?

    Comment by idkka | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • I think most of them are out of the bag by now. Derek McCallum, etc. I’ll have a little list for tomorrow. My wonder with Juco players will be evident.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  21. What are your thoughts on Ben Carlson from Missouri State?

    Comment by rob | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • Have to love the size. I have some concern that he was swinging for the fences this year, and I hope it’s not a habit, though it was mostly frustration from not getting good pitches to hit. He’s still only a year removed from Tommy John surgery, so we’ll have to see what he can offer with his arm. He’s a first baseman anyway. But he should be an early second day pick.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  22. I’ve read that Ackley is the no-brainer pick at #2 but don’t know much about him. If he progresses as the M’s would hope, what numbers would you expect from him during his peak years and what major league player (past or present) is the best comparison?

    Comment by Matt | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • At the plate, the comparison that I’ve made personally, and one that I absolutely love, is with Fred Lynn. See his stats here. Add some speed to that, and make him a center fielder. Great package. I’m not saying Ackley will have a Fred Lynn career, but his peak years could be typical Lynn years, though probably without the 39 homer year.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  23. Andy, what do you think of David Nick, what round do you think he is picked in and have you heard any teams tied to him?

    Comment by nmstar | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • I haven’t heard any teams tied to him specifically. I like his skillset, but the word on his funny stance has been a bit negative this spring in terms of future potential. Spraying line drives is nice against prep pitching, but I see less and less stuff on him having any power potential. PG mentions he wasn’t crosschecked much this spring late, meaning there’s a good chance he falls rather far. He’s committed to UCLA, and there might be a chance his commitment is a lot stronger than the public perception of it. I think BA has completely overlooked this, and I give PG tons of credit for that.

      By the way, Nick’s already 19 and 4 months old, meaning he’ll be a draft-eligible sophomore in 2011.

      BOLD PREDICTION: Goes in the 7th, doesn’t sign, heads to UCLA.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  24. Since the draft isn’t on ESPN this year, can I get it on the internet for free or do I have to subscribe to MLB Network?

    Comment by John Ramey | June 8, 2009 | Reply

    • You’re in luck. On MLB.com, they’ll be simulcasting the MLB Network coverage for the first round, and they’re the sole coverage of the rounds beyond that. Just hook into their website, click into my live chat on here, follow the live blogs on the various baseball sites, and you’ve got tons of coverage available to you.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 8, 2009 | Reply

  25. Concerning future drafts, one player that has caught my eye the past two years is FSU’s Tyler Holt. Do you believe that he would be a future first round pick? Thanks.

    Comment by Mike | June 9, 2009 | Reply

    • Absolutely. He’s definitely in the picture. Here’s what I’m going to do. On Friday, when all this crazy draft week stuff is done, I’ll post my first watch list for the 2010 draft. That way, you guys can start debating who should be added, etc.

      Comment by andyseiler | June 9, 2009 | Reply

  26. Even with the MLB bonus recommendation nearly 10% lower, these figures are still out of control. Some of the price tags these players are putting on themselves is unbelievable! 6 figure bonuses before they even step on a pro field is crazy. Geez, I never had a job where I was paid so much upfront before my first day on the job. Besides, all clubs offer to pay for your college education to boot. 60-70K (the equivalent of a 2009 porsche I might add)just isn’t enough these days for most of these kids. Thats insane! MLB should set a bonus figure assigned by round, take it or leave it. Unfortunately it will need to be approved by the players union which will never happen.

    Comment by Floyd | June 9, 2009 | Reply

  27. Andy–Thank you for putting this site together. I am really enjoying the fruits of your labor.

    I wonder if the Braves would draft Tate–make him an offer–but not one that is outlandish. Tate would then go to UNC and the Braves would have the #8 pick next year and money this year to sign players over the slot. They would have to draft accordingly in rounds 3-7 or so. However, it would leave them with #8 pick next year–in what might be a better class and they would have more money to use this year. Alternatively, if they signed Tate, they would have gotten the premier high school position player in the draft at a good price. What do you think?

    Comment by Stephen in the UAE | June 9, 2009 | Reply


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