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Georgia v. Ole Miss Tonight and Open Thread

I’m heading to the Georgia-Ole Miss game tonight, so I thought I’d do an open thread today, answering pretty much any questions you might have about the draft.

Consider this an all questions answered thread. I’ll be checking in and answering throughout the day.

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April 9, 2010 - Posted by | Open Thread

12 Comments »

  1. My infatuation with Chris Sale grows by each week. BA did an article on him a couple of days ago and his coach talked a little bit about his projection (some scouts said he touched 98-99 mph on a Wichita scoreboard). It seems to me that he has a great deal of polish, but some serious projectability as well. Am I crazy for thinking he could become a frontline starter with a plus fastball (93-95mph), plus change, potentially plus slider and plus command?

    Comment by JP_Frost | April 9, 2010 | Reply

    • That’s not a crazy thought. I’m not nearly as high on his slider as most, as I think it’s an average pitch, but he does have a plus fastball-changeup combo that will be excellent against advanced pro hitters.

      His fastball is also 91-93 most days, and while there’s some projection, there’s also some thought that he’s maxed out the velocity, as his delivery is more about deception than creating power. If he altered his delivery a little bit to incorporate just a little more of his lower half, I think he could add a little velo, but that’s not as important as getting movement and deception on his current offering.

      I peg his ceiling as a #2, but there are plenty of stories about pitchers who firmed up command and added surprising velocity, making them better than their projected ceiling as a potential draftee.

      I consider it a pure toss-up between him and Pomeranz, and while I like Sale’s athleticism more, I think Pomeranz has better raw stuff. I’m looking forward to seeing what Pomeranz can offer.

      Comment by andyseiler | April 9, 2010 | Reply

  2. I can’t think of any good question to ask about this draft, so how about 2011:

    I’ve seen a couple of Brett Mooneyham starts (both webcasts). His stuff is some of the best that I’ve seen from anyone in college baseball, but he has little to no idea where it’s going. He’ll paint the corner with a fastball on one pitch then miss by a couple of feet. He’ll throw a ridiculous breaking ball and then see the next two slip out of his hand. What do you with a player like that? Is he still seen as a 1st round prospect in 2011?

    Comment by Jeff | April 9, 2010 | Reply

    • 2011 questions are welcome, too.

      Mooneyham is definitely an enigma. His inconsistency is frustrating for scouts, because they’ll see him some days where he looks like a top ten guy, then they’ll come back another day and he’ll look like a 5th rounder with minus command. That’s tough to evaluate.

      In general, scouts want to go off the good things they see. If they see Mooneyham flash plus-plus stuff, then they’re going to evaluate him off of that stuff. Command will always be an issue with him, so that’s part of the evaluation, too. However, the general thought is that if you see it when he’s an amateur, you draft him and tell the player development department to get that raw stuff into game form more often than not. It’s in there somewhere.

      He’s still considered a first round prospect for me, but he’s facing very stiff competition for next year. Being left-handed helps, but there are even more left-handers than usual getting first round consideration for 2011, including Danny Hultzen, Jed Bradley, Ryan Carpenter, and maybe Adam Conley out of Washington State. That’s not even naming one of the best prep lefties in awhile in Daniel Norris out of Tennessee, along with Henry Owens out of California.

      In other words, he’s going to need to shape up before next June. He’s a prime candidate to play with Team USA or on the Cape, where he’ll probably look a lot better against wood bats.

      Comment by andyseiler | April 9, 2010 | Reply

  3. Hi Andy,

    Enjoy your site very much. Thanks for all the hard work and great success to your MLB prospect book coming out soon.

    My son is Jeff Shields, RHP for Chattahoochee Valley CC. I find his name at various spots on potential draft lists for 2010 from 215 to 357. He is having a very good year at CV, 1.04 era, 62 k’s in 60 innings, opp. BA = .176 fastball has touched 95, sits 90-92. I am curious why you think he might not have moved up more as I see scouts at his games regularly. And how closely do these lists end up mirroring the actual draft?

    Thanks,

    Cliff

    Comment by Cliff | April 9, 2010 | Reply

    • Hi Cliff, welcome to the site. Happy to have you here.

      Jeff’s season was highly anticipated, and the reason I don’t think he’s moved up is that he’s met lofty expectations. I’m sure he has moved up the boards of some teams, so I wouldn’t worry about the rankings you see online.

      Junior college players can vary wildly from their expected draft position, as teams can value them very differently. If Jeff is considered signable for slot money, he could easily go as high as the 4th or 5th round. However, Jeff could also build value if he follows through on his Georgia commitment and excels in Athens next year.

      He’s had a great year, and all I can say is that he’s bound to be much higher than the 357 number you mention by the end of the year if he continues pitching the way he has. At this point, scouts will be wondering more about signability than stuff, as they’ve had awhile to understand what your son is capable of when he’s pitching well.

      Comment by andyseiler | April 9, 2010 | Reply

  4. I’m reading/hearing mixed reviews on Griffin Murphy. I read he can be a supplemental 1st and some have him in the 3 to 4 round range. What are your thoughts on him? Thanks andy keep up the great work.

    Comment by TJ | April 9, 2010 | Reply

    • I think he’s a solid supplemental to second round type of pitcher, and the main reason he has so much helium is that he’s in a prep class with very few left-handed pitching talents. I think of him as a solid middle of the second round type of talent, but that’s not taking into account that league-wide preference for left-handed arms.

      Comment by andyseiler | April 13, 2010 | Reply

  5. Will anyone from University of Maryland get drafted in 2010?

    Comment by Jordan | April 10, 2010 | Reply

    • Sure will. The top name is probably the same name from before the season, which is Brett Harman. He’s a command and flyball pitcher, and he’s a solid swing man option in the mid-teens.

      Comment by andyseiler | April 13, 2010 | Reply

  6. Andy,

    I am new to your website and I have learned so much so far. I appreciate it very much, I learn something new everyday.

    My son is Garrett McHenry, 6’1″ 190 lb LHP for Bevill State Community College, Fayette, AL. He pitches fb consistantly 88-90 and tops out at 92. His current stats are as follows: era 2.53,37 k’s in 46.1 inn pitched, opp bat avg .191. We have been told his is a draft prospect, what I was wondering is, what are his chances in the draft and how do we know?

    Thanks,
    Melissa

    Comment by Melissa | April 10, 2010 | Reply

  7. Hope you enjoyed Athens. As life long Reb fan, what do you think the 2010 draft does to Rebels (after Pomeranz)? Ferguson, Smith, Barrett, etc.??

    Thanks.

    Comment by Mikey L. | April 15, 2010 | Reply


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